05 December 2008

Send In The Clowns



This isn’t a lame duck session, this is a damn clown show. The Treasury Secretary and President Bush team up to scare Congress into handing out $350 BILLION dollars to shore up/bailout/subsidize the financial sector, and now the son of a biscuit-eater bankers won’t return a phone call – unless they need more money.

The Three Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride in from Detroit, first in their spit shined corporate jets, then again, after being rebuffed the first time, with their hats in hand, long faced and remorseful, as if their sad features had been painted on by the people who do the makeup for the Ringling Brothers circus, all this for 24, no, scratch that, 34 BILLION dollars to keep ALL of their companies afloat.

Is this a joke? Is Harry Reid serious? Has Nancy Pelosi lost her mind?

These pimpernickels are really wasting time being sanctimonious about a measly 34 BILLION dollars when they just flushed 350 BILLION dollars down the toilet - I mean, loaned it to - oops, I mean "invested" in such creditworthy entities as AIG, Washington Mutual, and Countrywide?

The Wall Street bankers STILL won’t call anybody in the government back, have not cut ONE dollar from their bonus plans, which apparently reward their executives for peeing straight without hitting the toilet, since that’s the only target they could have possibly hit in the last twelve months, and these cartoon characters we have clogging up the halls of Congress are sweating the Three Horsemen over this 34 BILLION like we’ve never thrown good money after bad before.

We will lose more money in AIG alone than the automakers need, even if you double the 34 BILLION to a nice, round 70 BILLION that is more likely to be the final tab, but these elected nincompoops, who claim to represent us, are prancing around the Capitol Rotunda as if they are proctors at an SAT exam.

Half of Congress can’t spell “derivative” - most of Congress have no idea how to read the arcane minutia that garnishes a Wall Street balance sheet. These are the Keystone Cops who are demanding that Barack Obama do something NOW, as if he is John Shaft instead of the president-elect.

And we wonder why the kids seem to be schizophrenic these days? It’s amazing more of them aren’t prescribed mind-altering psychiatric drugs, with adults who claim to be leaders acting like this.

Don't get your panties in a wad, Barney - pun intended. I'm sure you guys will come to your senses and realize that the money set aside for more fuel efficient cars can be reallocated to this crisis. In case you don't know how to do this, you can feel free to call any of your constituents who had to "reallocate" money earmarked for home improvements or savings accounts when gas was over $4.00 a gallon.

Hopefully these next 46 days will be long enough for you guys to realize that the Barack Obama you elected didn't come with a cape or super powers.



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01 June 2008

Will Obama get 25 superdelegates by Tuesday?

My man Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has been working overtime to keep up with poll results from Puerto Rico AND the elusive magic number of delegates needed to lay claim to the Democratic nomination.

Jim Clyburn intends to announce on June 3.
Deb Kozikowski intends to announce by June 4.
Jimmy Carter will endorse after the primaries conclude.
Margie Campbell, who had one false start and had to retract on technical grounds, will become official after Montana ends.
Maria Cantwell has endorsed Clinton, but says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Denise Johnson says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Chris Van Hollen says he will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Christine Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Nancy Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Donna Brazile says the RFK remark made her "numb," that she will quit the Democratic Party if the superdelegates decide the party's nomination, and there is only one way they can do that.

BONUS DATA LINK: Nate also does a superb job of mathematical sleuthing to uncover a discrepancy between the threshold of 2118 delegates being bandied about by the talking heads and the actual number of delegates that exist as of today in his piece "Is 2118 the Magic Number?



Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico

The news orgs haven't called all the pledged delegate allocations in Puerto Rico, but here's what it looks like:

Dist 1: 2; Need 25.001% for 2 of 6, Obama's got 28.09% with 98% reporting
Dist 2: 2; Need 30.001% for 2 of 5, Obama's got 30.88% with 100% reporting
Dist 3: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 30.38% with 100% reporting
Dist 4: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 31.23% with 100% reporting
Dist 5: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 29.10% with 100% reporting
Dist 6: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 33.74% with 100% reporting
Dist 7: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 35.29% with 98% reporting
Dist 8: 2; Need 30.001% for 2 of 5, Obama's got 34.73% with 100% reporting
PLEO: 2; Need between 21.43% and 35.71% for 2 delegates, Obama's got 31.59% with 99% reporting
At-large: 4; Need between 29.17% and 37.50% for 4 delegates, Obama's got 31.59% with 99% reporting
Total: 17

Obama Pledged Delegates Before Today: 1709.5
Edwards Pledged Delegates for Obama: 16.5 (includes 4.5 Edwards per Chuck Todd)
Superdelegates: 330.5
Guaranteed Michigan add-ons per yesterday's deal: 1 (2 people, half votes each)
Pre-Puerto Rico Total: 2057.5

Majority: 2117
Needed: 59.5

Puerto Rico pledged for Obama: 17
Needed: 42.5

Donna Edwards is running to replace Al Wynn in Maryland-04 a majority-minority, heavily gerrymandered Democratic district, and with her election the needed to win number goes up by .5, but Obama gets a full delegate, thereby making this number essentially 42.

A one-vote win in South Dakota gives Obama 8 delegates.
A one-vote win in each half of Montana gives Obama 9 delegates.

Needed superdelegates before Tuesday night so that the primaries put Obama over the top: 25

In the next 48 hours, will Obama get 25 superdelegates to declare publicly?

Here's what we know about 10 specific supers:

Jim Clyburn intends to announce on June 3.

Deb Kozikowski intends to announce by June 4.

Jimmy Carter will endorse after the primaries conclude.

Margie Campbell, who had one false start and had to retract on technical grounds, will become official after Montana ends.

Maria Cantwell has endorsed Clinton, but says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Denise Johnson says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Chris Van Hollen says he will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Christine Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Nancy Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Donna Brazile says the RFK remark made her "numb," that she will quit the Democratic Party if the superdelegates decide the party's nomination, and there is only one way they can do that.


Hmmm...Senator Obama appears to have 1732.5 delegates (unofficial total) as I write this, which means he is their man.

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