Will Obama get 25 superdelegates by Tuesday?

My man Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has been working overtime to keep up with poll results from Puerto Rico AND the elusive magic number of delegates needed to lay claim to the Democratic nomination.

Jim Clyburn intends to announce on June 3.
Deb Kozikowski intends to announce by June 4.
Jimmy Carter will endorse after the primaries conclude.
Margie Campbell, who had one false start and had to retract on technical grounds, will become official after Montana ends.
Maria Cantwell has endorsed Clinton, but says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Denise Johnson says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Chris Van Hollen says he will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Christine Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Nancy Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.
Donna Brazile says the RFK remark made her "numb," that she will quit the Democratic Party if the superdelegates decide the party's nomination, and there is only one way they can do that.

BONUS DATA LINK: Nate also does a superb job of mathematical sleuthing to uncover a discrepancy between the threshold of 2118 delegates being bandied about by the talking heads and the actual number of delegates that exist as of today in his piece "Is 2118 the Magic Number?



Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico

The news orgs haven't called all the pledged delegate allocations in Puerto Rico, but here's what it looks like:

Dist 1: 2; Need 25.001% for 2 of 6, Obama's got 28.09% with 98% reporting
Dist 2: 2; Need 30.001% for 2 of 5, Obama's got 30.88% with 100% reporting
Dist 3: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 30.38% with 100% reporting
Dist 4: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 31.23% with 100% reporting
Dist 5: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 29.10% with 100% reporting
Dist 6: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 33.74% with 100% reporting
Dist 7: 1; Need 37.501% for 2 of 4, Obama's got 35.29% with 98% reporting
Dist 8: 2; Need 30.001% for 2 of 5, Obama's got 34.73% with 100% reporting
PLEO: 2; Need between 21.43% and 35.71% for 2 delegates, Obama's got 31.59% with 99% reporting
At-large: 4; Need between 29.17% and 37.50% for 4 delegates, Obama's got 31.59% with 99% reporting
Total: 17

Obama Pledged Delegates Before Today: 1709.5
Edwards Pledged Delegates for Obama: 16.5 (includes 4.5 Edwards per Chuck Todd)
Superdelegates: 330.5
Guaranteed Michigan add-ons per yesterday's deal: 1 (2 people, half votes each)
Pre-Puerto Rico Total: 2057.5

Majority: 2117
Needed: 59.5

Puerto Rico pledged for Obama: 17
Needed: 42.5

Donna Edwards is running to replace Al Wynn in Maryland-04 a majority-minority, heavily gerrymandered Democratic district, and with her election the needed to win number goes up by .5, but Obama gets a full delegate, thereby making this number essentially 42.

A one-vote win in South Dakota gives Obama 8 delegates.
A one-vote win in each half of Montana gives Obama 9 delegates.

Needed superdelegates before Tuesday night so that the primaries put Obama over the top: 25

In the next 48 hours, will Obama get 25 superdelegates to declare publicly?

Here's what we know about 10 specific supers:

Jim Clyburn intends to announce on June 3.

Deb Kozikowski intends to announce by June 4.

Jimmy Carter will endorse after the primaries conclude.

Margie Campbell, who had one false start and had to retract on technical grounds, will become official after Montana ends.

Maria Cantwell has endorsed Clinton, but says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Denise Johnson says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Chris Van Hollen says he will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Christine Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Nancy Pelosi says she will endorse whoever gets 1705 pledged delegates.

Donna Brazile says the RFK remark made her "numb," that she will quit the Democratic Party if the superdelegates decide the party's nomination, and there is only one way they can do that.


Hmmm...Senator Obama appears to have 1732.5 delegates (unofficial total) as I write this, which means he is their man.

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