Puerto Rico Updates

Another frequent poster at DailyKos - actually the proprietor - has posted this "on the ground" look at how things are going in the Puerto Rican primary today. The "list emptying" Ricky Rossello refers to in his recap sounds like something you used to hear about stateside in the old days, when TV was in black and white and ballots were on paper.

Anyway, this is as close to live info you are likely to get - even given the fact that the source is a Clinton supporter, he doesn't really have a reason to spin the results at this point, and its more info than you could get from Wolf Blitzer and company if you watched them all day today.

Puerto Rico updates Hotlist

by kos

Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 11:25:10 AM EST

I'm getting reports from the island from Ricky Rossello, son of former Gov. Pedro Rosello and vice-chair of the Clinton campaign in Puerto Rico.

First, his thoughts on how districts are expected to perform:

San Juan (district 1), Bayamon (district 2) and Carolina (district 8) -- should be very strong Hillary Clinton posts.

Guayama (dist 6) and Mayaguez (dist 4) should be more in-line with Obama.

Ponce (district 5) and Arecibo (district 3) will be curious to watch, because Ponce is a typical Obama Hotbed, but most of the mayors in the region support Hillary, while in Arecibo, the opposite is true. It will be interesting to see how much political muscle these mayors have.

Humacao (district 7) should be interesting to watch because there have been serious reports of "list emptying" -- a dynamic that occurs in Puerto Rico, when electoral representatives from one side are not present. This practice consists in taking the whole list of voters who did NOT come in but were registered there, and signing them up as if they voted. In the general election, this happens, but with an 81-85% turnout... the impact is significant but may be minimal. However, on a primary where the maximum expected turnout is 30-34%, one or two of these may be significant enough to swing a district one way or the other.

That 30-34 percent mark was interesting, since I know the Clinton camp has been hoping for a massive turnout from the island's 2.4 million registered voters to pad their (rather irrelevant) "popular vote" argument. 30 percent wouldn't put enough votes in play to make a significant impact on that metric (which now is even more confusing given the results of yesterday's Michigan compromise).

As of 10:30 a.m. local time, turnout in Puerto Rico was around 20-25 percent, lower than usual, but that's being chalked up to a possible "church effect". Just got an update:

Turn out has increased now (as of 12:15) in the [San Juan] metropolitian area; an expected stronghold for Clinton. I am on the base now, but will go out and drive through the different polling places, and give you my thoughts on that as well. Will call for the other districts too -- update you in 30-40 mins...

Update: Al Giordano's predictions:

The Field projects that Clinton will win 62 percent to 38 percent for Obama [...]

36 pledged district delegates:

District 1, San Juan: Obama 2 - 4 Clinton
District 2, Bayamón: Obama 2 – 3 Clinton
District 3, Arecibo: Obama 2 – 2 Clinton
District 4, Mayagüez: Obama 2 – 2 Clinton
District 5, Ponce: Obama 2 – 2 Clinton
District 6, Guayama: Obama 2 – 2 Clinton
District 7, Humacao: Obama 2 – 2 Clinton
District 8, Carolina: Obama 2 – 3 Clinton

Update II: Rossello sends another update:

Turnout is getting significantly high in Bayamon and San Juan... Long lines. Caguas (Part of the Humacao District 7) is having problems... I suspect you will hear about voter fraud there (read the blurb about list emptying). Some polling places only have representatives of one candidate in this town.

Report from Ponce coming shortly.

Update III: Rossello:

Ponce (Dist 5) Turnout is high -- But consolidation of polling places may drive confusion. No notion if it favors hillary or obama yet.

Remember, Ponce is an Obama stronghold, but with pro-Clinton mayors. So we'll have to wait until votes are counted to see if the mayors' political clout has trumped the electorate's leanings.




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2 comments:

USpace said...

.
Obama will still get the nomination unless a disaster is revealed. I would dearly love to see a Jewish, African-American woman as POTUS. It's not race or gender that makes it for me though. It's political beliefs that matter, and socialism is bad for everybody, (accept those high in government or high-level academia) especially poor people, of all races. Obama is a dyed-in-the-wool Marxist, no thanks.

His 'Change', 'Hope' and 'Progress' mantras are actually somewhat self-mocking. Making your own Obama posters is totally addicting.
I laughed so hard I almost had a breakdown. LOL!

:)
.
absurd thought -
God of the Universe says
befriend a bomber

pushing for change at all costs
sacrifices must be made

.
absurd thought -
God of the Universe says
only feel and hope

please force people to change
change can only be good

.
Make Some Obama Posters NOW!
.
Appeasement Talk Bothers Appeasers
.
Help Halt Terrorism Now!
.
USpace

:)
.

Brown Man said...

I haven't studied his website. I probably know as much about his positions on the issues as I knew about John Kerry's or George Bush's or Al Gore's positions when they ran - more than most people, but not enough to hold more than a casual conversation on them.

Whether he is the worst president in the history of presidents is almost irrelevant to me - what matters to me most is what this intelligent black man's face on TV every week and his voice in sound bites everywhere will do for young black boys and young black men.

We need our brains back in black America. We need to put the guy in the blue suit back on top of our cultural totem pole and slide the rappers and the singers down a few notches.

Your Marxist comment had ME laughing out loud (never could stand internet shorthand, curmudgeon that I am)at the absurdity of the charge - if he was, it would have been trumpeted from the rooftops by now.

The thing about the American system of government - the tug of war between its three branches is so intense it wouldn't matter if he was a communist with a capital "C" - even though the vast majority of us are sheep, it takes a lot to herd all 300 million of us into a different direction.

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