What "The Bradley Effect" Really Looks Like In West Virginia

[Sometimes I run across original research, original analysis, or hard-to-get information that is exactly the kind of stuff I live for - well thought out, well written, well researched commentary, the kind that your media experts get by the pound but think is too much for you to understand.

This author doesn't really need to keep his avocation under the radar for professional reasons, but tells me that everybody knows him as Carnacki. His website is called West Virgina Blue. The post below has been slightly edited for Brown Man Thinking Hard, but it can be found in its entirety at his website. Carnacki has given me permission to publish his comments and photos here.]

All I've been hearing about, and will probably continue to hear about until after the election, is the famous Bradley Effect, where political pollsters predicted former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley had won the race for governor of California back in 1982 based on their research and exit poll data.

They were wrong.

Many of the pollsters concluded that Bradley's polling data was skewed by his race, hypothesizing that voter reluctance to appear to be racially biased prevented a significant sample from answering poll questions honestly once they had cast their ballots.

This idea has been kicked around by political pundits all year, leading many of them to reserve a healthy amount of skepticism about the accuracy of the primary and presidential election polls since Barack Obama, an African American, was running for president.

The bad thing about TV and cable news shows is a pronounced tendency to use the same image over and over, day in and day out, in order to anchor the stories they are developing in their viewers minds. With the limited amount of airtime they have, that means there are a WHOLE LOT of things you don't get to see that are going on in the rest of the country.

What you are about to see are the faces behind the statistics that are showing Barack Obama only six points behind John McCain in the state of West Virginia, a state that has not gone for the Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Enjoy.

Brown Man

Tour for Change in West Virginia by Carnacki

You don't think Appalachian Americans are ready to vote for a black candidate? I beg to differ.

The following diary is photo intensive. The West Virginia Democrats and union leaders took two buses and several vans from Charleston, West Virginia throughout southern West Virginia on a Tour for Change. I drove 6 hours from the Eastern Panhandle on Friday night to join them at 8 a.m. Saturday.


8 a.m. Charleston, opening press conference


Among those there were Governor Joe Manchin, Auditor Glen Gainer, Treasurer John Perdue, Attorney General Darrell McGraw, Sec. of State Nominee Natalie Tennant, Supreme Court Nominee Menis Ketchum, UMWA President Cecil Roberts, WV AFL-CIO President Kenny Perdue, State Party Chairman Nick Casey.

Ben Smith from Politico hopped on the bus to cover the tour. He spoke to a lot of people, including Tom Vogel at length who explained the national pundits took the primary results here to be anti-Barack Obama when it really was pro-Hillary Clinton. Since then the state has run a coordinated Campaign for Change to encourage people to vote a straight Democratic ticket, from Barack Obama on down.



10:15 a.m., Boone County Democratic Rally, Danville

It was a crisp autumn day. Mark, one of our Democrats from Danville, said he played football on the field when they were blasting through the rock not far away to build a cut through the hill for the road. It shook the field as they practiced. This was long ago, but out of kindness to him I won't say how long.



At each stop Kenny Perdue handled the introductions and the opening and passed it off to Glen Gainer, who really fired it up for Obama. In West Virginia, even the state auditor and the state treasurer do stemwinder speeches. (Joe Manchin headed from Charleston to Bridge Day to speak to the tens of thousands there.), passing the microphone through the ranks.

Natalie Tennant, the first and so far only woman selected to be the West Virginia University Mountaineer mascot, fired her musket at the close of her speeches when we were outdoors. Talk about "Fired Up" and "Ready To Go". You'd think the musket shot would have been rousing, but it was Cecil Roberts brought really brought it home.

He talked about how awful the policies of George Bush have been on working people and how Dick Cheney mocked West Virginians as inbreds at a black tie dinner for his millionaire and billionaire friends. Cheney has even joked that now he doesn't need the votes of West Virginians for re-election. "That's what Republicans think of you," Roberts said. West Virginians can't punish Dick Cheney, but they can punish John McCain and the other Republicans.


12 p.m. Logan Democratic Rally, Logan Mall



The Logan Mall - a shopping center - is the flattest area of the community because it's a reclaimed stripmine where they've built retail and restaurants.



Logan surprised our volunteers. The longer the people spoke, the more people showed up. And several of our volunteers passed out Obama Biden bumperstickers on the main thoroughfare to cars that would stop and roll down their windows. So then they began passing them lawn signs too. It seemed like more cars took them than didn't.


1:30 p.m., Williamson Democratic Rally, Williamson Fire Hall

There were more than 100 people in the fire hall before we arrived. Ryan was there during the primary and these were strong Hillary Clinton supporters. They're coming home.

You heard of "Yellow Dog Democrats" - I called these "Broken Glass Democrats." They'd crawl across broken glass to vote for the Democrat. This county is very important because they generally vote a straight Democratic ticket.



As Nick Casey and I talked about later on the bus, the McCain campaign (and unfortunately some of our own people here) assumed these folks wouldn't vote for a black candidate. Many of us believe they will. We have faith they're better than that and they don't deserve being taken for granted by anyone, Democrat or Republican. These are good people. These are good Democrats.




3:45 p.m. Welch Democratic Rally, outside the Welch Library

We pulled into Welch and the people were fired up and ready to go before we even got there. Three young teenagers were banging on drums and had a good beat going. McDowell County is about 25 percent African American in a state that has an overall African American population of about 3.5 percent.



Throughout the trip big, burly men would come up and hug Cecil Roberts. They love him here. Unions for steelworkers, painters, and miners, teachers, government workers, service industry, were all represented. Cecil Roberts has to be one of the most popular figures in the labor movement today.




5:30 p.m. Princeton Democratic Rally, Mercer County Courthouse



People with preconceived notions about West Virginia have made a lot of presumptions, basing their opinions on the most negative Appalachian stereotypes and the way people here look. As Tom Vogel explained to Ben Smith, you can find people in any part of this nation making ignorant comments. I think the videos from northeast Ohio and elsewhere from the Sarah Palin rallies have demonstrated that quite clearly.

John McCain has taken my state for granted. He has one field director here. After stating they were sending Sarah Palin here, Palin went on a "Blow Off West Virginia Tour", hightailing it to Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Joe Biden is coming here and soon Barack Obama will too. They want to win our state.

And so do these people.

Obama's Kryptonite Crippling McCain Campaign

I heard from three friends of mine in the same hour this afternoon.

"What's going on with this ACORN?"

"Do you think Obama's got it in the bag now?"

"Do you think it looks like Obama's going to win?"

After the third call, it started sounding like the "30 Dirty Tricks In 30 Days" segment of the McCain campaign's fall strategy had gotten up to a full head of steam. Throw enough mud long enough, and even the most faithful will begin to waver a little. So I decided to see if I could find anything to ease their minds as the negative campaigning season begins in earnest.

After looking around, I could see why my friends were calling - it looks like Old Spice and Scary Spice were at it full speed ahead today, manufacturing new slurs by the hour to try to combat the rising tide of bad news that threatens to drown their struggling campaign. But there's no need to dwell on that stuff - there will plenty more of it for the next few weeks from Old Spice and Scary Spice as desperation sets in.

Just remember, stories like the ones I am listing below are like kryptonite to the McCain campaign. The more of them there are, the weaker they get, no matter how negative their attacks are.

From the Anchorage Daily News
Thursday, October 9, 2008 1:06 pm:
Alaska Supreme Court Refuses To Block Troopergate Inquiry

The Alaska Supreme Court today rejected an attempt by a group of six Republican legislators to shut down the Legislature's investigation of Gov. Sarah Palin.

The ruling means that Steve Branchflower, the investigator hired by the Legislative Council, will release his report as scheduled on Friday.

Branchflower is looking into Palin's dismissal of her public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, and whether she improperly pressured him to fire a state trooper divorced from her sister.

Anchorage Superior Court Judge Michalski ruled last week that the conduct of the investigation did not violate the right to fairness. He found the Legislature has the right to investigate and issues like whether it happens through a council or committee are not for the courts to decide and is "business to be left to the legislative branch."

The Alaska Supreme Court today upheld Michalski's ruling in a two-page decision. The court clerk, Marilyn May, wrote that a full opinion explaining why would be coming.


FULL RULING BELOW for my legal eagles and procedural junkies:

Appellants are six legislators who claim that the Alaska Legislative Council's investigation into the dismissal of Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan is unlawful and should be enjoined. The superior court denied the appellants' Motion for Temporary Restraining Order and granted the Motion to Dismiss submitted by the Alaska Legislative Council and the other defendants.

At the request of the appellants for a decision no later than today, October 9, 2008, we heard the appeal on an expledited basis. On consideration of the October 6, 2008 appellants' brief, the October 6, 2008 amicus curiae brief, the October 7, 2008 appellees' brief, and the oral argument held on October 8, 2008,

IT IS ORDERED: The order of the superior court issued on October 2, 2008 granting the Motion to Dismiss is AFFIRMED. An opinion will follow.

Entered at the direction of the full court.

Obama Buys Half-hour Of Network Primetime

Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of primetime television on CBS and NBC, sources confirm.

The Obama campaign is producing a nationwide pitch to voters that will air on at least two broadcast networks. The ad will run Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m. -- less than a week before the general election.

The direct purchase of such a large block of national airtime right before an election used to be more commonplace before campaigns began to focus their end game strategies exclusively on battleground states. Such a move is not without precedent in modern presidential politics, however -- Ross Perot did a similar purchase in 1992.

OBAMA POLLING +8 IN WEST VIRGINIA

American Research Group, Inc.

Presidential Election Poll - West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

Likely Voters:

McCain 42%

Obama 50%

Other 3%

Undecided 5%

Hopefully, for those of you who have begun to get a little nervous like my friends, these items will give you a little more confidence, or assuage any doubts that may have popped up this week.

Old Spice and Scary Spice can yell "terrorist" and "William Ayers" and "he's not one of us" as loud as they want - it is being drowned out by the roar of the Dow Jones Industrial Average crashing down through the 9000 point mark. Losing another six hundred points will put the Dow Jones under 8000, very real possibilty in the next few days.

The only gamechanger this year will be the economy.

Although I'm sure there are some people in a small, airless room somewhere near McCain campaign headquarters who are trying to figure out a way to pin this on Barack Obama.

I'm still waiting for them to connect Obama with O.J.

At the rate these two are going, you know its just a matter of time.