tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post7282471228082013986..comments2024-02-15T04:24:25.144-05:00Comments on Brown Man Thinking Hard: What "The Bradley Effect" Really Looks Like In West VirginiaBrown Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02544490126803327515noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-75304982335875652562008-10-27T14:12:00.000-04:002008-10-27T14:12:00.000-04:00Love the blog. You have a fresh perspective and i...Love the blog. You have a fresh perspective and interesting point of view. I love it! :-)brightstarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07582681939455543384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-81901482990808948592008-10-23T12:07:00.000-04:002008-10-23T12:07:00.000-04:00One thought about the so-called "reverse Bradley"....One thought about the so-called "reverse Bradley"...<BR/><BR/>I wonder to what extent even that is really a "reverse frontrunner" effect. As McCain increasingly gives people reasons NOT to vote for him, he may be pushing away undecideds who might otherwise lean McCain.<BR/><BR/>I'd speculate that some of the frontrunner effect comes from the way races are typically covered, regardless of candidate race. When there's a clear frontrunner media outlets have an incentive to overreact to any possible momentum shift lest they lose viewers/listeners/readers. They really only sell two basic narratives: 1) the neck-and-neck horse race that comes down to undecideds (e.g., Kerry/Bush in 2004), or 2) a race with a clear frontrunner who could lose momentum at any moment (e.g., Gore in 2000--easy to forget he had a sizable lead in Sept.). <BR/><BR/>So typically undecideds, particularly those who are leaning towards the underdog anyway, have reason to stay engaged. But, since they don't have strong attachments to either candidate the narrative matters; it can sway them one way or the other.<BR/><BR/>This year though, neither of the major narratives seem to be sticking. You can't sell neck-and-neck b/c Obama has pretty well held a lead that hasn't too much wavered since the first debate. Likewise, a last minute momentum swing is less and less plausible by the day for McPalin. To use a football analogy, McPalin is down two scores with the clock winding down but can't get the ball back because they can't stop Obama's running game. (Think of the third debate as the 2-minute warning.)<BR/><BR/>If you were undecided, what makes you say "McPalin's gonna win!"?<BR/><BR/>So if we see some "reverse Bradley" at the polls on Nov. 4th, my immediate suspicion will be that some of those people switched to Obama just to be on the winning team. I bet a lot of others, who leaned McPalin, will just stay home.dave crocketthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04269584494115120615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-21865861242112260672008-10-23T10:08:00.000-04:002008-10-23T10:08:00.000-04:00That's a feel good post!That's a feel good post!Kit (Keep It Trill)https://www.blogger.com/profile/03027769872237001801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-30290296663735147312008-10-22T20:16:00.000-04:002008-10-22T20:16:00.000-04:00BM - as always, excellent stuff. One comment thoug...BM - <BR/><BR/>as always, excellent stuff. One comment though. I'm in an airport on only had a chance to skim the post. So forgive if you already addressed this point.<BR/><BR/>The Bradley/Wilder effect pretty much disappeared in the mid-late 90s. Check out the work of a Harvard Poli-Sci post-doc named Dan Hopkins. (I saw the paper on Daily Kos over a month ago. I'm sure you can search Bradley effect and find it.) He has to my knowledge the most comprehensive stuff out on the Bradley effect phenomenon.<BR/><BR/>He makes 2 pretty critical points.<BR/><BR/>1. The effect disappeared around 1995 and really hasn't returned. It looks like the effect was tied to a specific national racial narrative. Once that narrative turned away from "crime" and "welfare" the effect went away and hasn't come back.<BR/><BR/>2. You have to separate out the "frontrunner" effect. Hopkins distinguishes between a true--race-based--Bradley effect and a mere frontrunner effect. That is, frontrunners tend to lose some of their lead in the opinion polls at the voting booth. (Actually, this happens to white/black and male/female frontrunners alike.) <BR/><BR/>The frontrunner effect seems to be tied to lots of undecideds giving pollsters the most popular candidate at the time they're polled. At least some of them switch between the time of polling and the time of voting. That's probably a bigger problem for Obama. The true size of his lead may be a bit overstated by undecideds--they're most likely to switch from opinion polls to the voting booth.dave crocketthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04269584494115120615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-1910936336276095702008-10-22T11:55:00.000-04:002008-10-22T11:55:00.000-04:00I find the reverse Bradley Effect theory interesti...I find the reverse Bradley Effect theory interesting--that there are white Republicans who are planning to vote for Obama but can't admit it to pollsters.Monroe Andersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06856226188529368355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-27271529462029444972008-10-22T10:59:00.000-04:002008-10-22T10:59:00.000-04:00Nothing like putting some faces with those statist...Nothing like putting some faces with those statistics.<BR/><BR/>Makes you want to go out somewhere and help a little old lady across the street.Brown Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02544490126803327515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-638291409180356672008-10-22T10:47:00.000-04:002008-10-22T10:47:00.000-04:00Great info. I'm on the West Coast but have been ke...Great info. I'm on the West Coast but have been keeping an eye on WV, plus the "real Virginia", so this is fantastic info. Take a look at fivethirtyeight.com for statistics crunching about exit polls, the Bradley effect, and other analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3276072416212541005.post-712438955429813752008-10-22T02:39:00.000-04:002008-10-22T02:39:00.000-04:00Brown Man: U R "da man!!"What a GOLD ...Brown Man: U R "da man!!"<BR/><BR/>What a GOLD MINE!!! :>)<BR/><BR/>THANK YOU!! :>) :>)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com